The Long Emergency
Part One.
With
James Howard Kunstler
Jay Weidner: Welcome back. I’m Jay Weidner. You can check out my films at www.sacredmysteries.com or you can read my articles and other weird stuff at my own web site www.jayweidner.com. Also check out my newest film Infinity: The Ultimate Trip: Journey Beyond Death with Neale Donald Walsch, Gregg Braden, Brian Weiss and many others. Also check out our new Qi-Gong series with Pedram Shojai, This is the most comprehensive DVD series on Qi-Gong ever.
We’re talking to James Howard Kunstler. He is the author of the great book, "The Long Emergency, " and another book that I really like, "A World Made By Hand, " which I think would make a great low?budget movie, if anyone is out there listening that wants to make a movie, that would be a great low?budget. Film.
James has really gone into this whole thing about the peak oil, and where we're headed over the next few years, and it's a real pleasure to talk to you. Are you there?
James Howard Kunstler: Yeah, I'm here.
Jay: Great. Hey, listen, I was wondering, have you ever read the book, "The Fourth Turning?"
James: Yes, I have.
Jay: Yeah, it fits in in with the real politic that you're talking about. I just finished it a few weeks ago. I was really impressed.
James: Yeah, I admired it quite a bit. It's maybe not what it seems to be from its title. It seems to have a sci?fi odor about it, but in fact, it's a very serious meditation on the generational cycles of history.
Jay: Yeah.
James: And the various moods of history. I think that it's got a lot of truth in it.
Jay: Last night, for the first time my wife forced me to watch, "Gone With the Wind." I really didn't like the film, but while I was watching it, I realized that it was a film that was made during the last fourth turning about the previous fourth turning, which was the Civil War. It was, of course, made at the height of the Depression, which was the last fourth turning, of which we're heading for the next fourth turning according to the book, of which I'm sure the audience is going, "Huh? What are we talking about?"
Basically, it's just this theory that about every 85 years, or one long generation, the United States goes through a major upheaval from the Revolution to the Civil War to the Great Depression to the Long Emergency, which is a great name for what is going on here. It's not a great depression, it's worse in some ways than that.
Let’s concentrate on the good side of things, but before we do that, let's talk about what you're talking about. A lot of people get upset when you say that there's a peak oil, and that the world is running out of oil, and that the oil companies will tell you that there's more oil on earth than we could use in a million years.
What they're saying probably is true, but you're saying something different. You're saying that the crude oil, or the sweet crude, oil that's easy to get to, that's what we're running out of, right?
James: Well, in a way, though we're beyond that now. Yeah, I think what I wrote in the book, "The Long Emergency, " it was about the end of cheap oil. That was the point, the end of cheap oil. But I think we're seeing some other things. There have been quite a few developments since 2005 when "The Long Emergency" was published. The oil problem is still very much with us, of course it was never really about running out of oil, per se. It was more about the failure and instability of the complex systems that we depend on for daily life in America, in the space of these instabilities. In the face of these discontinuities.
By complex systems, I mean the way we feed ourselves ? industrial style farming. The way we do commerce and trade. The way we do transportation, the way we inhabit the landscape. All of these systems of daily life are going to have to change pretty severely in the face of the circumstances that are upon us. We're not prepared to think about that at all.
Jay: No, it's a huge gap in people's thinking, and it's really almost ? I can't quite explain it ? it's almost like a psychopathic reaction to reality.
James: Well, let me try to explain it, because I don't think it's that abstruse, really.
Jay: Okay.
James: I've said this to many a college lecture audience. I think that we are in the grips of something that I would describe as the psychology of previous investments. By the way, this is not a completely original though, either. This is the same as the concept of sunk cost. The psychology of previous investment really means that you've put so much of the resources of your culture ? the collective resources ? you've invested so much of the collective resources in a certain system, a certain way of doing things, that you can't imagine changing it or letting go of it. That's what we've done, we've elaborated a system for daily life in America that is very rigid and unadaptable.
We've invested also, our national identity in it. Now we can't let go of it. I'm especially talking about not something abstract, but about a very practical thing. The living arrangement that we have in America, which is essentially the suburban living arrangement.
The investments we've made in that are so horrendous and gigantic, that we can't imagine having to live without it, or do without it, or change it, or even modify it much. We're stuck with these investments at the moment, and it's the biggest obstacle for us to think about what we really have to do.
Jay: Well, I can't even imagine, actually. If you go out to Riverside, California or San Bernardino County, which is east of Los Angeles, you're dealing with about a 35 percent foreclosure rate. They're turning into ghost towns.. I wouldn't live there, and if someone is living there, they have my pity. I'm sure the crime rates are starting to climb. People have found a way to absorb the crush of what's happened in the last year. They had a lot of good stores, they had a lot of wealth. They're grouping together with their families, and they think that it's over when, in fact, commercial real estate is really getting into a dangerous position right now, where it could just turn into almost a chain reaction and they could just all be closed down.
We're dealing with this thing, and I don't think anyone really realizes what kind of change is really at hand, where it's truly going to be a cultural change.
James: There's been one major change since I published "The Long Emergency, " or, rather since the Atlantic Monthly Press published it in 2005. That is that we destroyed the banking system, or as the banking system destroyed itself. And we now find ourselves, and this is really the larger problem at the moment, and it even has implications for the energy situation, but the larger problem is that we, we can't generate any more debt, we can't pay back any more debt at all levels, you know, the household level, the corporate level, or the government level. We are comprehensively broke and we can no longer run a revolving credit society and that's really the larger problem now. We may not, you know, we may find that we're out of capital before, well before, we're out of gas. And this has implications for the whole oil industry as well because what we're seeing is a lack of capitol to make investments in new oil exploration and development and a lot of the projects that we had hoped would be coming online to address the ongoing depletion, those projects are not going online, and we're not going to compensate for the ongoing depletion and this is going to have kind of an accelerating, snowballing effect. And I think it's a lack of capital may be what finally puts us out of business with oil rather than sheer depletion.
Jay: Well let me ask you, if we get into a position like that, honestly, aren't we going to be so weak that we're either going to have what Gore Vidal thinks which is a military dictatorship, or the Chinese could take advantage of the situation?
James: Well I don't think the Chinese are going to be landing in San Pedro anytime soon. And I also, you know, I like to say that I'm allergic to conspiracy theories. I'm especially allergic to grandiose theories. I think this idea that we're going to fall into a military dictatorship is kind of grandiose. If anything, I think that we will see that the federal government will become increasingly impotent and ineffective and that's exactly what we're seeing now. We just voted out the Republicans and we voted in a Democratic president and a Democratic administration and Congress, and you know, we are making the unhappy discovery that Mr. Obama seems to be just as ineffective as Mr. Bush was. I hate to add, I voted for Mr. Obama.
Jay: Well yeah, a lot of people did.
James: And I'm not sorry I did but cause I think he's a better quality person than the previous president but it shows how ineffective the central government really is. I don't really think they'll be able to organize any kind of a fascist regime.